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This is a brief of our annual analysis of the gold and silver markets. In the full Outlook Report, we take an in-depth look at the market players, dynamics, fallacies, drivers, and finally give our predictions for gold and silver prices over the coming year.
Our unique analysis of precious metals, encapsulated in our Supply and Demand model, is a true signal in an otherwise very noisy market. It has achieved over 75% accuracy in predicting future price moves over the last decade.
So, how exactly do we do it?
How We Think About Gold
Gold and silver cannot be understood by conventional commodity analysis.
This is because virtually all of the gold ever mined in human history is still in human hands (to a lesser extent for silver). No other commodity comes even remotely close. The World Gold Council estimates this to be about 201,296 tons. That’s over 6 billion ounces and just shy of $12 trillion (as of this writing).
We think this number underestimates it, potentially by multiples.
Why?
For two reasons. Humans have been accumulating gold for a very, very long time.
Second, gold isn’t exactly the kind of thing people mention that they have.
The implications of this are extraordinary.
It means there’s no such thing as a glut in gold. And there’s no such thing as oversupply. People are happy to keep stacking gold today and for all the “todays” going back thousands of years.
All of the above ground gold that humans have been…
