October 14, 2025

The odds are in favour of the BJP and its Chief Minister, Yogi Adityanath. Under him, Uttar Pradesh has shed the image of a rogue state

As Uttar Pradesh goes into the Assembly elections, with the first phase of polling getting over on 10 February, electoral speculations are on full swing. For a state like Uttar Pradesh there are several factors at play that would decide the poll outcome. And after going through each of these factors, it seems the BJP has an advantage over others despite anti-incumbency and farmers’ protests.

Voters await for their turn to cast votes at a polling station. Representational image PTI

Caste fault lines

A lot has been said in recent times about the Brahmin-Rajput rivalry and Brahmins’ anger with the BJP. Shashikant Pandey, HoD, Political Science at the Babasaheb Bhimrao Ambedkar University (BBAU), Lucknow, however, feels that this perceived anger has been blown out of proportion. Gilles Verniers, associate professor, Political Science, Ashoka University, also shares the same view. While Pandey calls the perceived rivalry as a “rivalry within family” Verniers thinks it’s “an inflated rivalry”.

Be it the Ram Janmabhoomi Trust, the Shri Kashi Vishwanath Nyas Parishad, the UP Higher Education Services Commission, the UP Public Services Commission, and even the Yogi ministry, Brahmins remain the main decision-makers in the Yogi government. In the 2007 Assembly elections, 46…

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